You’ve been chosen as a champion

to represent your wizarding house in a deadly duel against

two rival magic schools. Your opponents are fearsome. From the Newt-niz school, a powerful sorcerer wields a wand

that can turn people into fish, but his spell only works 70% of the time. And from the Leib-ton school, an even more powerful enchantress wields

a wand that turns people to statues, and it works 90% of the time. Lots are drawn, and you’re chosen

to cast the first spell in the duel. The Newt-niz magician will go second, and the Leib-ton enchantress third, after which you’ll repeat casting in

that order until only one of you is left. The rules of magic duels are strict, and anyone who casts out of

order immediately forfeits the duel. Also, to prevent draws, the rules stipulate that

if everyone’s still standing at the end of the first round, you’ll all be turned into cats. Now, you must choose a wand. Your wizarding house presents you

with three options: the Bannekar, which binds

one target with vines and casts effectively 60% of the time, the Gaussian,

which turns one target into a tree and works 80% of the time, and the incredibly rare Noether 9000, which banishes one target

to a distant mountaintop and casts perfectly 100% of the time. Your opponents are masters of strategy,

as well as sorcery, and you know they’ll make the choices that

maximize their own chances of success. Which wand should you choose and what strategy should you employ to have the greatest chance

of winning the duel? Pause the video now if you want

to figure it out for yourself! Answer in: 3 Answer in: 2 Answer in: 1 You reach for the Noether 9000 first. After all, it makes sense to enter

the duel with the most powerful wand. But before you pick it up, you consider

what would happen. As the most dangerous wizard, you’d also be the target

of the other two magicians, and you’d need to take

care of the most dangerous of them first. But afterward, there’s a 70% chance you’d

be struck down by the remaining wizard. That’s trouble. Maybe it’s better to take the Gaussian. It works 80% of the time, which means you wouldn’t be a target

until the enchantress was incapacitated. But if you succeeded in transforming her, you’d probably be turned

into a fish immediately after. If you transformed the sorcerer, the enchantress would almost

certainly turn you to stone. It would really be better if you missed. And that’s when you have an idea: what if you took the Gaussian,

then missed on purpose? Then, you would wait for the sorcerer

to attack the enchantress, and you’d have an 80% chance

of winning against the sorcerer. It’s a good idea, but there’s a problem; the sorcerer could also pass his turn and the enchantress, knowing that

she couldn’t pass without becoming a cat, would cast her spell on one of you. And since you’re the most dangerous

between you and the sorcerer, you’d be the target. And that’s when you see

what you really need to do: take the weakest wand, the Bannekar,

and miss on purpose. Now the sorcerer knows that

he’ll be targeted by the enchantress and he’ll have to try to turn her into

a fish to avoid being turned into stone. Seventy percent of the time he’d succeed and you’d have a 60% chance

of winning the duel at the beginning of the next round. If he fails, chances are he’ll be

turned to stone and you’d still have a 60% chance of

winning the duel against the enchantress. There’s a slim 3% chance

you’ll all be turned into cats, but when everything’s accounted for, you have better than even odds

of winning with this strategy. And that’s the best you can do. Here’s what the probability of winning

for the different strategies looks like. Who would’ve thought

that the best way to take your shot would be to throw away your shot?

Sign up to be emailed the solution to the bonus riddle: https://brilliant.org/tededpoisonapples/! Also, the first 833 of you who sign up for a PREMIUM subscription will get 20% off the annual fee. Riddle on, riddlers!

4:17 I got that reference

Choose from the green bowl

You should grab all three only show the banker and miss then after it’s your turn again pull out the nutria 9000

I want to be a cat tho…..

Take the noether and hit yourself so that you survive

As green apples bascket has 2 poisonous apples, the probability of being gone is 1/10 and red apples bascet has 3 poisonous apples, so the chances of being gone is 3/10… So Green bascket should be chosen

So the answer is to pull out a machine gun and kill them both

0:22

Mizzo Ipang enters the chatJust a meme for Gacha fans

People who are complaining about passing the turn, lacks logical thinking.

Take 100%, cast spell on #2,

#3 cant cast as not their turn so disqualified, you win.

That Hamilton reference though

What if the spells all end up failing

MEOW

Red bowl

4:15 is that a Hamilton reference I sense

This sounds like fire emblem

Use the wand and you can be teleport man

Maybe a life as a cat won't be bad

I'll choose the green apple

This is just math…

my strategy (as always)

EXPECTO PATRONUMMM!!

People who chose the “obvious choice”:*

facepalm*I got the wand right somehow, but guess what! You didn’t say we could miss. So I didn’t do the riddle correct.

I actually did it

So like Harry Potter the goblet of fire?

I didn’t know about missing on purpose but i did pick the 60% wand and hoped to miss. But my logic was to win at round 2 so i was close

I was right!? I'm surprised! Thinking outside of the box worked in my favor. 🙂

For the apple I think you can choose the red ones and cut them all and take 4 halfs and you can't die

For the apple I think you can choose the red ones and cut them all and take 4 halfs and you can't die

for the apple riddle, if you pick the green one, there are three possibilities and only one kills you, making your chances of living 2/3, but if you pick the red one, there are also three possibilities, only one kills you, making your chances of living 2/3 again! It's not how many out of the apples are poisonous, it's about how many of you pick can be poisonous, with the exception of picking one poisonous apple because it takes two to kill you, not one, but the reason why it works like this is because it takes two to kill you, but no matter what, you pick none, one, or two poisonous apples, but two apples is always the most you can take, it doesn't matter because of this!

4:16 screw that reference

basically what this I thought was: OH so if i chose: 1. the right wand, and 2. the right person, i will have a greater chance of success.

but no, the correct answer was to MISS ON PURPOSE.

that's like having three options, but hiding the fourth and correct answer so that the person wont know about it.

Eat one poisoned apple and familiarise yourself with the taste

4:15 how dare you. 😂

This is too much information for my 3 brain cells.

why am i watching this

4:14 lol

I would take the green bowl and cut every single apple in half,and eat 6 halves.Pretty good chance of surviving

So a 65% chance of winning?

Help! What's the answer to the apple riddle?

80% kill 90% wizard – lets see the answer 🤣

Edit: wtf??? U didnt clarified you can miss on purpose !!!

So yes, without that bending rules like in your answer 😳 the best chances are:

Taking 80% wand and try to kill 90% wizard. If you kill her its 70% against your 80 % in yo7r way. If you don't succeed, 70% will attack her aswell. If he kills her, you have 80% chance of winning.

There is ofcourse small chance neither of you or the other wizard kills her, but its still your best shot.

I would pick the green apples because:

If I eat a poison apple off the bat, there are three safe apples and one poison apple left. Thus, a 75% chance of survival. If I eat a safe one first, a 100% chance of survival. So, i have a 50% chance of either 75% or 100%. chance of survival. Leaving me with an 87.5% chance overall.

I wouldn’t pick the red apples because:

If I eat a poison apple off the bat, there are two safe apples and two poison apples left. Thus, a 50% chance of survival. If I eat a safe one first, a 100% chance of survival. So, I have a 50% chance of either 50% or 100% chance of survival. Leaving me with a 75% chance overall.

equal chance of red and green (0.7 chance of living) so I would pick green because green apples are nicer

You- Ravenclaw

Enchantress- Hufflepuff

Sorcerer-Gryffindor

4:15 aLeXaNdEr HaMiLtOn

Did you just make a Hamilton reference?

I love the Hamilton reference

My calculations at the apple riddle is that at the worst case scenario (meaning you eat at least one poisonous apple) is that the green apple gives you 66.6% chance of surviving while the red gives you 50% chance of surviving. Tell me what do you guys get?

You didn't tell that we can miss the shot on purpose 😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤😤

Um where's hogwarts?? Hello?? Potterheads?

Can I cast myself using the Nueter9k and leave the place so they have to duel while I'll still be around, far-away. 😂

Was anybody getting Harry Potter vibes at 0:07

Make the others agree to end in a draw so you can all be cats 😀

Reference to so many mathematicians and physicists. .. great job ted ed

1. Sir Isaac Newton

2. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz

(Their names are in the names of the magic schools.. Newt-niz and Leib-ton)

3. Carl Friedrich Gauss

(The Gaussian)

4. Amalie Noether

(The Noether 9000)

Can anyone tell me what the Bannekar refers to?

The binding

Since we're making up rules as we go (like missing on purpose was never stated to be allowed), then obviously just wait a really long time until your opponents go to sleep, then cast your 100 % spell right between them to hit them both at the same time

Newt-Niz and Leib-Ton Newt-Ton and Leib-Niz. Issac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz.

Honestly, everyone should just miss. I’d rather live as a cat

Why am I thinking of Harry Potter and the Goblet of fire's Tri Wizard tournament?

Did anyone notice the name of rival schools???? NEWT-NITZ and LEIB-TON……..

NEWTON AND LEIBNITZ!!!!!!!

HAMILTON IS THAT YOU!!!?!?!?!

I know you guys are all saying the thing about how the riddle is kinda backwards…

but can we talk about how the color is just put behind the picture wITHOUT BEING PROPERLY COLORED IN????????

clearly you just cast out of order and get disqualified. Yay mom i didn't die today!!

What I was expecting, was strategy, instead, I got J.K Rowling

Hamilton reference lol

being turned into cats doesn't sound so bad.

That Alexander Hamilton reference tho

Answer for the last one, the second bowl.

Use wand on Enchantress. Me:I'm still alive! As a fish.

Like sam said (I thought this too) the only correct answer is to hit yourself with the 100% wand. It's guaranteed youll be teleported onto a mountain and be the last surviving wizard, or you can tell the other wizards (your two opponents to revolt against the judges and you take three wands they use there two and you kill the judges you will all be free

harry did you put your name in the goblet of fire

0:33 Medusa:

*laughs in 100% chance of working*Trick them into playing out of time

Missing with Gaussian wand still lets you win about 56% of the time. You miscalculated it to be zero. You missed the 70% chance where the second wizard manages to knock out the third one, giving you a 80% chance to knock him out in the next hit 70*80/(100*100) is 0.56 as in 56%

so im right then Pepega

Use the 100% wand since it looks the sharpest then slice both their necks with 1 move

pick the gauciem and go for the sorceror and if i get him out then the 3rd person will go thus going out of order making me the winner

Why am i doing this its 4am

me:

expecting wizardry battle stuffTed Ed:

puts that lil Hamilton bit at the end4:15

I AM NOT THROWING AWAY MY, SHOT!4:47

I mean, both of them would probably kill me.

I'm allergic to apples.Who

Doesn'tWant To Be a Cat Though?The best Bowl of apples is the green one.

Choose 100% wand—>target enchantress and yourself. Choose personal wand—>make out on the mountain. Win.

Lol love the Hamilton reference

THAT HAMILTON REFERENCE THO

I decided that it very important that you can't attack same person twice so i would grab 60% wand and shoot myself with it and hope for a miss(40%), then there's 90% chance that somebody will get eliminated in next turns and after that i'll try to hit with 60% remaining wizard, but probability of this is actually lower than just grabbin 100% wand and eliminating 90% wizard so i went to check the solution and god i wasted my time with this one

the chance with noether 9000 and missing should be 0 % cuz the other 2 will focus you and if they miss you all die. if they do hit you, you die either way

I AM NOT THROWIN' AWAY MY SHOT I AM NOT THROWIN' AWAY MY SHOT

HEY I'M JUST LIKE MY COUNTRY-

Being a cat wouldn’t be that bad though

1. Confirm you hav green eyes

2. Win the duel

This is a TERRIBLE riddle. Rule 5 clearly states that you would be turned into a cat before you made your 2nd shot, at the end of the 1st round. Just because you chose to miss, that does not mean the 1st round did not start.

11a: a unit of action in a contest or game which comprises a stated period, covers a prescribed distance, includes a specified number of plays, or gives each player one turn.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/round.

You only get 1 turn before being turned into a cat, regardless of what you choose to do with the turn. downvoted.

Also if you missed and the wizard turned the enchantress into a fish the first round would be over and you’d both be cats

Why would the 70% guy ONLY miss on purpose when you have the 80% wand? Why wouldn't he still attack the 90% person knowing that he would be a target afterwards? 80% < 90% after all, so strategically it would make literally no sense for him to miss on purpose. The answer this video gives is wrong, you want the 80% and to miss on purpose. That would give you the greatest chance of victory

The correct answer is to go out of order so you can turn into a cat and rule society with your cuteness

ɮɨɢ ռօYOU ARE WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My incredibly freaking smart uncle tells me to pick 80%wand.

You still only have a 60% chance of winning

I didnt think that you could miss on purpose, my idea was to:

Get the bannekar, aim for the yellow mage and hope that i'll miss, then the red guy would target the yellow one as well since she's so dangerous and hopefully get her, then i'll aim for the red guy and hope that i get him

HAMILTON REFERENCE